It happens every four years, as inevitable as death and taxes: the “silly season” of presidential politics. With 16 months until voters pick the next president and six months until the first Republican caucus, political reporters are grasping at stories that tell us little about what might happen in 2024 — and ignoring one of the best indicators about the current mood of the electorate.
First, there was the Robert F. Kennedy Jr. boomlet, pushed along by polls that showed the political neophyte winning up to 20% of the Democratic primary vote. What followed was a series of splashy profiles and a feeding frenzy so intense that political reporters were turned away from accompanying him to campaign events.
If political reporters want to give their audience a sense of what the electorate is thinking, they should point to this week’s special election in Wisconsin.
A month later, the bottom has fallen out. A recent poll of New Hampshire Democrats shows Kennedy with a favorability rate of 9% and unfavorability rate of 69%. Those are “Vladimir Putin in Ukraine” numbers.
Odd as it might seem, a candidate who praises Donald Trump, promotes insane conspiracy theories and takes positions more popular with Republicans is not faring well among rank-and-file Democratic voters.
Next came the usual Democratic hand-wringing over the incumbent president’s prospects for re-election. Why aren’t Biden’s polling numbers better? Why isn’t he getting credit for the strong economic recovery? According to a recent CNN report, “conversations keep happening — quiet whispers on the sidelines of events, texts, emails, furtive phone calls” with prospective Democratic candidates in case President Biden decides not to run for re-election.
The problems were “clear,” said CNN: Biden’s re-election effort lacks energy. In particular, “multiple big donors aren’t locking in” and “grassroots emails are sometimes bringing in just a few thousand dollars.”
Days later, the Biden team reported that the president had raised $72 million for the second quarter of 2023 — with $77 million in cash on hand. That total was more than double former President Trump’s fundraising haul for the same period. And, whatever you want to say about Biden, a new internet ad featuring an unexpected endorsement of his legislative accomplishments from House Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene suggests that his trolling/social media/political advertising game remains formidable.
Then came the quadrennial fantasy about a third-party presidential candidate. The latest incarnation comes courtesy of No Labels, a group of centrists who have convinced themselves that a third-party bid could upend the two-party system and seriously compete in a national election. Never mind that third-party candidates consistently underperform the closer it gets to Election Day or that this deeply polarized political era, where partisan identity is the greatest predictor of voting, is perhaps the worst time to run as a third-party candidate. Nonetheless, some Democrats have gotten themselves in a lather about the possibility that a No Labels candidate could take votes away from Biden and elect Trump.
Democratic strength in special elections has become a consistent trend this year.
Of course, as the old saw goes, you can’t beat something with nothing. No Labels seems to be pegging their hopes to West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, who, aside from being deeply unpopular in his home state, is also one of the most disliked senators nationally. The chances that the attention-starved Manchin will run or have a serious impact on the outcome next November are close to nil, but in a political vacuum, it makes for a great story.
However, if political reporters want to give their audience a sense of what the electorate is thinking, they should point to this week’s special election in Wisconsin’s 24th Assembly District, where Republican Paul Melotik defeated Democrat Bob Tatterson. That might sound like good news for the GOP, but Melotik won by only 7 points in a district that Donald Trump won by 17 points in 2020. Tatterson even outperformed Democratic Gov. Tony Evers, who lost the district by 13 points on his way to re-election in 2022.
Democratic strength in special elections has become a consistent trend this year. According to the folks at Daily Kos Elections, who have put together a handy spreadsheet of special election results so far in 2023, Democrats are running 7 points ahead of 2020 presidential results and 11 points better than 2016. In 15 out of 21 special elections held this year, Democrats have outperformed Biden’s 2020 numbers. These numbers do not even take into account the results of a May Supreme Court election in Wisconsin, in which the Democratic candidate running on an unambiguously abortion-rights platform trounced her Republican opponent by 11 points in the same state that Biden won by less than a point.
Why does this matter? Because special elections are one of the single best predictors of future political outcomes. In 2017, Democrats overperformed by double digits in special elections, presaging their 40-seat victory in the House of Representatives in 2018.
Last year, strong Democratic results in special elections in New York, Nebraska, Kansas, Minnesota and Alaska suggested that Democrats would do better than expected in November’s midterm elections. That is precisely what ended up happening.
In short, the best indicator of the current mood of the electorate may not be found in Biden’s poll numbers, the chatter of Democratic donors or perennial discontent among Democratic voters but rather in small, little-covered special elections in which Republicans continue to underperform.
The fact is, Biden has no serious primary competitor and is likely to begin 2024 with an enormous war chest. Trump continues to lead in Republican primary polling, and even the prospect of another federal indictment is unlikely to dim his star among Republican voters. Unfortunately for the GOP, Trump is deeply unpopular outside his own party and is the politician best able to mobilize Democratic voters. Democratic candidates continue to overperform in special elections, as the party did before their strong election performance in 2018 and 2022. Barring an unforeseen development (and this is not a prediction) Biden is well-positioned to win re-election. That might make for a boring story, but it’s also the most likely one.
